In a preliminary analysis of this year's fires, the Agency for Integrated Rural Fire Management (AGIF) says that 2025 was the fourth-worst year since 2001 in terms of burned area, totalling 270,000 hectares, with the North and Central regions being the most affected.

In turn, according to AGIF, the number of fires remains “significantly below” the historical average, with 8,284 fires this year.

Preliminary data also shows that, during the last summer, there were 44 fires with more than 500 hectares of burned area, with 21 in the North, 17 in the Center, five in the Alentejo and one in the Algarve, which represented only 0.5% of the number of fires, but 91% of the burned area.

AGIF reports a “significant reduction” in the number of fires between 2001-2017 and 2018-2024 and a “notable increase” in large-scale fires in 2025, highlighting six fires with more than 10,000 hectares that represented 59% of this year's burned area.

The agency also indicates that preliminary data, due to ongoing investigations, point to a "sharp decrease in the number of incidents involving the use of fire and arson" since 2017. However, compared to 2024, arson fires have increased by 16% this year.

Arson

Of the fires that broke out this year and have already been investigated, 34% were caused by arson, 11% by inconclusive investigations, 9% by controlled burns, 9% by agricultural machinery, and 5% by natural causes – lightning, as was the case with the largest fire this year, which lasted 12 days and started in Arganil on August 13th.

AGIF also highlights that accidental fires have increased by 65% ​​this year (2025) compared to 2024.

Preliminary analysis also indicates that 56% of the burned forest was in areas of maritime pine and other coniferous trees, 23% in areas of cork oak, holm oak and other broadleaf trees, and 19% in eucalyptus plantations. Additionally, one-fifth burned in areas within Forest Intervention Zones (ZIF) and 34,000 hectares in the National Network of Protected Areas (RNAP), representing 4% of its total area.

Carbon emissions

The document points out that carbon emissions resulting from the 2025 fires are quite significant, totalling 3.6 million tons, double the historical average (2003-2024).

Preliminary data also show that 2025 is the fifth most severe year in terms of weather conditions, with August being particularly severe and registering the longest period of consecutive days with conditions conducive to large fires since 2001, specifically 29 days, between July 23 and August 20.

“On average, 68% of the annual burned area and 92% of mega-fires (over 5,000 hectares) result from ignitions on critical days (with greater weather severity), highlighting the importance of preventive behaviours on these days,” reads the analysis, which emphasizes the “significant increase” in re-ignitions in 2024 and 2025.

AGIF also states that, in 2025, the number of large fires and the burned area will be well above the targets defined in the National Integrated Rural Fire Management Plan.

The fires this year have caused six deaths, four firefighters and two civilians.