As a result, many couples delay, or simply give up on, having children. The consequences of this phenomenon are already starting to raise concerns among demographers and policymakers.

Chronically low fertility

The drop in birth rates in Portugal is neither sudden nor isolated. It affects women in Sintra, Porto, Lisbon, and other urban and rural areas alike. The fertility rate has remained below the replacement level for several years. In 2024, it was estimated that each woman had, on average, 1.40 children. Although a slight increase is forecast for 2025, the changes are minimal and unlikely to reverse the trend.

Recent developments show a modest recovery after the lowest levels of the last decade. In 2021, the rate was 1.35. It rose to 1.42 in 2022 and reached 1.44 in 2023. However, the drop recorded in 2024 highlights the fragility of this recovery. Portugal remains far from the replacement threshold and lacks a clear trajectory of sustained improvement.

Fewer births, more ageing

This stagnation in fertility has direct consequences on the number of births. In 2024, fewer than 85,000 births were registered, a drop of 1.4% compared to the previous year. This translates into negative natural population growth, as the number of deaths continues to exceed the number of births.

As a result, Portugal has just over 10 million inhabitants, with those over 65 making up an increasingly large share of the population. The median age continues to rise, reinforcing an ageing demographic structure with limited generational renewal.

One-third of mothers are foreign

In this context, immigration has played an increasingly important role in Portugal's demographic dynamics. In 2024, around one-third of newborns had mothers born outside the country. This phenomenon, which has grown over the last decade, has helped partially sustain birth numbers. However, it is not enough to reverse the overall trend of declining motherhood.

How does Portugal compare to the rest of Europe?

Compared to the rest of Europe, Portugal is slightly above the EU average in terms of fertility: 1.40 versus 1.38 children per woman in 2023. Still, it lags behind countries like Bulgaria (1.81) and France (1.66), which lead the continent in fertility rates.

At the opposite end, countries like Spain (1.12) and Malta (1.06) report even lower figures. Portugal, therefore, occupies a middle ground: ahead of its southern neighbors, but still below the levels needed to ensure generational renewal.

What is behind the decline, and how to address it

The causes of this decline are varied, but specialists in reproductive health at Simple Eros highlight the following key factors:

Postponement of motherhood, often delayed until age 35, when fertility is already lower.

Economic and job-related difficulties.

Lack of family support and work-life balance policies.

Migration, both internal and international.

Although immigration has increased in recent years, it has not been enough to offset the low number of births. Without a doubt, Portugal faces a dual challenge: low birth rates and accelerated aging. Without concrete measures to encourage motherhood, improve working conditions, and promote work-life balance, the country risks worsening social and economic imbalances in the decades ahead.