In the Economic and Budgetary Outlook released on 24 September, the CFP forecasts the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) to rise to 3.2% in 2026, up 0.3 percentage points from its April estimate, mainly due to the energy component.

By 2027, inflation is expected to decrease to 2.6%, "alongside the reduction in energy prices in international markets and the dissipation of the base effect associated with the increase recorded in 2026," the institution indicated.

The CFP also warned that the food component constitutes a "counterweight" to this trajectory, given that the Eurosystem's projections for June point to a peak in food inflation in the euro area in the second quarter of 2027, mainly due to the increased cost of energy and fertilisers in 2026.

"Added to this scenario is the risk of a halt in cereal exports through the Black Sea, following the escalation of attacks on ports and commercial ships within the framework of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which affects two of the world's largest wheat exporters," the report says.

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