In a statement sent to the Lusa news agency, Olivum, the Association of Olive Growers and Olive Oil Mills of Portugal, indicated that this growth could stem from “high temperatures” that will accelerate the “olive ripening” period.

“This trend could lead some olive growers to start harvesting earlier, resulting in the corresponding early start of operations at the mills,” noted Gonçalo Moreira, a project manager at Olivum.

According to the association, if the forecast holds, the 2026/2027 season should bring “the country closer to the benchmark figures recorded in the 2024/2025 season”—namely, around 177,000 tonnes.

“Following a previous season that totalled 160,000 tonnes of olive oil nationwide, forecasts for this year point to a recovery for the sector,” Olivum stated.

Even so, Gonçalo Moreira emphasised that it is “still too early to draw conclusions about the season.” However, the focus remains on maintaining “the sector’s commitment to the excellent quality of Portuguese olive oil, reinforcing Portugal’s position among the world’s top producers.”

The association also warns that, despite “positive outlooks” for the year, it remains “attentive to the evolution of production costs, particularly those associated with fuel.”

“In mainland Portugal, the average price of agricultural diesel rose by approximately 60%, and road diesel increased by 40% compared to the same period of the previous season; this rise in costs represents an additional challenge for the sector in managing the current season,” it acknowledges.

Headquartered in Beja and established in 2013, Olivum is an association of olive growers and oil mills; it aims to address new issues regarding olive cultivation, including the need to defend and represent the sector, needs that were virtually unmet at the time of its founding.

The association represents over 53,000 hectares of olive groves, 21 oil mills, and approximately 70% of national olive oil production.