Rail is particularly competitive on journeys where airport transfers and security reduce flying’s time advantage. Airbus estimates high-speed trains could eventually account for around one tenth of the country’s domestic air traffic.

Credits: Unsplash; Author: Jake Weirick;

Airbus now expects China to require 7,480 single-aisle aircraft over the next 20 years, down from 7,950 previously. Research suggests rail has its greatest effect on airline frequency and capacity on routes of around 500 to 800 kilometres.

Chinese airlines are expected to focus increasingly on longer domestic and international routes rather than expanding short-haul capacity.